Elizabeth, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

271
FXUS61 KOKX 260637
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
237 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer temperatures today and Wednesday with late
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible on
Wednesday.

2) Moderate risk of rip currents today and Wednesday.

3) Seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A subtropical ridge will remain anchored over the
western Atlantic, while northern branch energy carves out an upper
trough by midweek. At the surface, weak high pressure builds in
today. On Wednesday, the frontal boundary well to our south may
nudge far enough north to bring some showers to the area Wednesday
morning, mainly for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island. Later
in the day on Wednesday, a cold front will move through with
associated aforementioned northern branch energy bringing a slight
chance for late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. At this
time, any thunderstorms don`t look to be too impressive. If there
will be any stronger storms they will likely be over southern CT
where instability is maximized before the front moves through. Model
consensus shows MLCAPE potentially reaching 1000 j/kg with decent
shear for southern CT. CSU MLP guidance has been going back and
forth with a marginal wind risk. Strength of storms will become
clearer with subsequent model runs, especially now that we are
within the CAM window.

Before the frontal passage, temperatures today and Wednesday top out
in the 80s for most. With a light onshore flow, Long Island and
coastal CT will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 70s.
The NBM was generally followed, with corrections made to Long Island
for the recent high bias.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Moderate risk of rip currents today with residual 3 ft SE swells,
and 2 ft southerly wind waves.

Low to Moderate risk of rip currents likely on Wednesday with
residual 2 ft SE swells, and 2 ft southerly wind waves.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures return closer to normal for the end of this week into
early next week. An upper level low originating in the arctic and
associated surface low drop down to the area late Friday into
Saturday. This may lead to some showers for southern CT and Long
Island. Something to note with this feature, much of the guidance
has 850 temps near 0C on Saturday. This is well below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure slides to the south and east of the region
tonight into Tuesday. A weak cold front approaches on Wed.

VFR thru this evening, except for outlying terminals where
MVFR- IFR visibilities are expected in patchy fog early this
morning.

MVFR/IFR conds likely towards Wed AM push with approaching weak
cold front from the north and weak southern wave sliding to the
south. A slight chance of showers for NYC/NJ metro terminals.

Light and variable winds in the morning, shifting to the S/SE
7-10kt in the afternoon. Light SW winds tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance for MVFR visibilities early this morning (09z-12z).

Potential for MVFR/IFR conds and slight chance of -shra for Wed
AM push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR/IFR conds likely towards morning push. A
slight chance of showers for NYC/NJ metro terminals.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR in AM with a slight chance of -SHRA, then
mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers.

Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening
showers.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers, mainly in the
afternoon and evening. NW wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT